What we’re trying to do is move the dial up….The more rigorous something is, the more it can be gamed. Hunt: It’s definitely not too rigorous to be gamed. Again, it’s a way of communicating externally and within the agency what our risk posture is. It’s not going to solve all of your problems. A JCL is looking at one aspect of those things. Myth #2: It will solve all of your problems. what that number is representing to me, to you, to decision makers, is, “I really need to bring an umbrella tomorrow.” Those are the kinds of things that we need to be able to communicate to our decision makers and also externally. So, if I look at the evening news tonight and they say an 80 percent chance of rain tomorrow, the 80 percent. A JCL is a way of communicating a project’s programmatic risk posture. Hunt: It is a number, but it’s not just a number. ( Editor’s note: The following transcription has been edited for clarity.) Throughout the robust question-and-answer session, Hunt dispelled ten myths about JCLs. Hunt shared the history and evolution of JCLs at NASA and walked through a sample JCL, highlighting critical points in the process. As Hunt explained, it combines components such as cost, schedule, and risk into an assessment of a project’s risk posture. A JCL identifies the probability that a given project or program’s cost will be equal to or less than the targeted cost and the schedule will be equal or less than the targeted schedule date. What are joint confidence levels, and what do they tell us about the state of a project?Īugust’s Virtual Project Management Challenge session featured Charles Hunt, a senior cost analyst at NASA Headquarters in the Office of Evaluation, Cost Analysis Division, on the topic of joint confidence levels or JCLs.Īt NASA, all flight projects with costs above $250 million are required to perform a JCL.
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